I've linked the Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center Below. Show Please take a minute to look at the map and see if you are in the "High" risk area for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes today and tonight. If you are, please pay extra special attention as storms that form in this area could be particularly long-lived and especially dangerous. We often are in the SPC's "slight" or "moderate" risk areas and can have very dangerous storms under those conditions. To see an area marked "high" is truly a cause for concern for folks in that area. The SPC does not use the "high" category very often or lightly. At this point, the risk for today looks higher in many areas than it looked earlier today or last evening. In the earlier thread, I listed Dr. Forbes' TorCon Index values for our region today. He has revised them (some have gone from a 7 to a 9) for some areas, so here are the latest TorCon numbers: Southern Arkansas, Northeastern Texas - 9Northern Louisiana - 8Southeastern Oklahoma, Northern Arkansas - 6Northcentral Texas, Central Louisiana - 4 Western and Southcentral Oklahoma - 2 This is the first time this year that Dr. Forbes has issued a '9'. So, it looks like the risk has shifted more towards Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana although significan risk remains for southeastern Oklahoma. If you are in any part of Oklahoma that borders northeastern TX or Arkansas, you need to be vigilant as you're so close to the danger zone. All I have to say is haven't these areas suffered enough severe T-storm damage and flood damage already? Any storms that happen today will just add to the flooding of areas that already are under water. Everyone please stay safe. It looks like the storms have the potential to be flat-out wicked once they start up. Dawn Here is a link that might be useful: SPC Convective Outlook for Today/Tonight Since Greg Forbes stopped posting them I can’t find them anyone know how to get them
TODAY’S SPC DISCUSSION TOMORROW’S SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TOMORROW’S SPC DISCUSSION DAY AFTER TOMORROW’S SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKDAY AFTER TOMORROW’S SPC DISCUSSION DAY 4-8 SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 SPC DISCUSSION YESTERDAY’S STORMS
A TORCON of 8 was issued for Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana on April 28, 2014. While watching The Weather Channel during periods of severe weather, you may have heard meteorologists talking about the TORCON Index for a specific area. What does TORCON mean, and why is it useful? Below we hope to answer some of the questions you might have. TORCON stands for Tornado Condition Index. On a scale of 0 to 10, a specific region is given a number, with higher numbers indicating a higher risk of a tornado within 50 miles of the given location. For example, a TORCON of 2 would indicate a low chance (20%) of tornadoes, while a TORCON of 8 implies a high probability of tornadic activity (80% chance). Who Created the TORCON Index, and Why Is It Useful?The TORCON Index was created by retired Weather Channel meteorologist Dr. Greg Forbes. A severe weather expert, Dr. Forbes, aimed to simplify how meteorologists communicate severe weather risk to the public with an easy to understand scale. To see more information on what TORCON is, watch this video narrated by Dr. Forbes himself. While The Weather Channel has done a few things over the years, which appear to be more of a marketing gimmick than actual science (such as its decision to name winter storms), the TORCON Index has real science behind it. Dr. Forbes has published several papers on severe weather and worked under Dr. Theodore Fujita—the man that created the Fujita Tornado Scale. His experience there, and in research projects with Penn State University played a large part in his continuing interest in severe weather. The TORCON index is a combination of three primary factors in severe weather forecasting: instability, wind shear, and “lift.” Below is a brief explanation of what these terms mean.
Dr. Forbes’ idea was to take these complex variables and simplify them. The Weather Channel owns the TORCON index’s rights, so the scale isn’t used elsewhere. Alternatives to TORCONWhile there is a scientific basis for Dr. Forbes’ TORCON index, there are other official sources that provide tornado watches and warnings. These alerts are just as accurate to gauge tornado risk and to receive up-to-the-minute severe weather information. Tornado Watches From the NOAA Storm Prediction CenterThe National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center issues tornado watches anytime there is a threat for tornadoes to form. While there is no stated equivalency with TORCON, an area where the SPC issues a tornado watch likely has a TORCON of at least 3 or 4. Watch “boxes” can take any shape and are issued on a county-by-county basis over a large area. To review what a tornado watch means, one is issued when conditions are favorable for a tornado to occur in and near the watch area. When a tornado watch is issued, be prepared by checking forecast updates, knowing where to take shelter, and monitoring sky conditions for tornado warning signs. Tornado Warnings From the NWSOne thing the TORCON index is not intended for is to warn of the immediate danger of a tornado. That’s the job of tornado warnings issued by the NWS. These are issued for small areas, sometimes even small portions of counties. In this case, a warning means that a funnel cloud tornado has been spotted or radar indicates a high likelihood that a tornado may be on the ground. Final ThoughtsWhile the TORCON index is useful and is more than just smart marketing, I still highly recommend you check official National Weather Service’s forecasts instead. Also, I recommend purchasing a weather radio if you live in an area prone to severe weather. Please take a look at our reviews and buying guide to find the best weather radio here. These radios will deliver warning information the fastest—even faster than a smartphone app notification. |
What is the torcon for my area today
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